Selecting Socio-Economic Metrics for Watershed Management

The selection of social and economic metrics to document baseline conditions and analyze the dynamic relationships between ecosystems and human communities are important decisions for scientists, managers, and watershed citizens. A large variety of social and economic data is available but these have limited use without theoretical frameworks. In this paper, several frameworks for reviewing social-ecosystem relations are offered, namely social sanctions, sense of place, civic structure, and cultural differences. Underlying all of these frameworks are attitudes, beliefs, values, and norms that affect which questions are asked and which indicators are chosen. Much work and significant challenges remain in developing a standard set of spatially based socio-economic metrics for watershed management.     

The macro implications of a complete transformation of U.S. agricultural production to organic farming practices

A national interregional linear programming model of U.S. agriculture is used to evaluate and compare two conventional and three organic production alternatives. The objective is to estimate the effects on production, supply prices, land use, farm income, and export potential, of a complete transformation of U.S. agriculture to organic practices. Crop yields and production costs are estimated for 150 producing regions for seven crops under both conventional and organic methods. Results indicate that compared with conventional methods, widespread organic farming leads to a decrease in total production, lower export potential, higher supply prices, higher value of production, lower costs of production, and higher net farm income. The United States domestic crop demand can be met with organic methods, but would be more expensive. Some interregional shifts in crop production would also occur.     

Feasibility Study of 316L Stainless Steel for the Ultrasonic Consolidation Process

The viability of using 316L stainless steel in the ultrasonic consolidation process was examined in this work. Ultrasonic consolidation is an additive, free-form manufacturing process that employs ultrasonic welding and machining to form a part. The process ultrasonically joins layers of metal together by welding them one at a time. Once four layers of metal foil are welded together, welding is suspended and the system machines the part outline, and repeats this cycle until a component is completed. Experiments were conducted to determine the feasibility and processing parameters for ultrasonically welding stainless steel. Mechanical testing and optical microscopy were conducted. 316L stainless steel was successfully welded. Increasing welding amplitude and decreasing welding speed were the most effective way to increase weld peel strength. Unlike work in aluminum alloys, these experiments found no relationship between horn force and peel strength. Rough processing windows for ultrasonically welding 316L were identified.     

Pressure- volume- temperature relationships of soy protein isolate/starch plastic

The use of pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) studies in processing of a biodegradable plastic composition made from soy protein isolate and corn starch is described. The ability of PVT measurements to predict the combined effects of pressure, volume, and temperature effects is demonstrated. The results show that the PVT relations of the plastic can be predicted by using a regression analysis similar to the Tait equations of state. A change in slope of the PVT curves was observed at around 80‡C, which is ascribed to the glass-transition process of the plastic. Evidence of onset of thermal degradation of the plastic was observed at ca. 160‡C under 0 to 200 MPa isobaric pressure. This thermal degradation precluded determination of the crystal melting point of the plastic.     

Potential Negative Ecological Effects of Corridors

Despite many studies showing that landscape corridors increase dispersal and species richness for disparate taxa, concerns persist that corridors can have unintended negative effects. In particular, some of the same mechanisms that underlie positive effects of corridors on species of conservation interest may also increase the spread and impact of antagonistic species (e.g., predators and pathogens), foster negative effects of edges, increase invasion by exotic species, increase the spread of unwanted disturbances such as fire, or increase population synchrony and thus reduce persistence. We conducted a literature review and meta‐analysis to evaluate the prevalence of each of these negative effects. We found no evidence that corridors increase unwanted disturbance or non‐native species invasion; however, these have not been well‐studied concerns (1 and 6 studies, respectively). Other effects of corridors were more often studied and yielded inconsistent results; mean effect sizes were indistinguishable from zero. The effect of edges on abundances of target species was as likely to be positive as negative. Corridors were as likely to have no effect on antagonists or population synchrony as they were to increase those negative effects. We found 3 deficiencies in the literature. First, despite studies on how corridors affect predators, there are few studies of related consequences for prey population size and persistence. Second, properly designed studies of negative corridor effects are needed in natural corridors at scales larger than those achievable in experimental systems. Third, studies are needed to test more targeted hypotheses about when corridor‐mediated effects on invasive species or disturbance may be negative for species of management concern. Overall, we found no overarching support for concerns that construction and maintenance of habitat corridors may result in unintended negative consequences. Negative edge effects may be mitigated by widening corridors or softening edges between corridors and the matrix. Other negative effects are relatively small and manageable compared with the large positive effects of facilitating dispersal and increasing diversity of native species. Efectos Negativos Potenciales de los Corredores     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

Field scale evaluation of volatile organic compound production inside biosecure swine mortality composts

Emergency mortality composting associated with a disease outbreak has special requirements to reduce the risks of pathogen survival and disease transmission. The most important requirements are to cover mortalities with biosecure barriers and avoid turning compost piles until the pathogens are inactivated. Temperature is the most commonly used parameter for assessing success of a biosecure composting process, but a decline in compost core temperature does not necessarily signify completion of the degradation process. In this study, gas concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) produced inside biosecure swine mortality composting units filled with six different cover/plant materials were monitored to test the state and completion of the process. Among the 55 compounds identified, dimethyl disulfide, dimethyl trisulfide, and pyrimidine were found to be marker compounds of the process. Temperature at the end of eight weeks was not found as an indicator of swine carcass degradation. However, gas concentrations of the marker compounds at the end of eight weeks were found to be related to carcass degradation. The highest gas concentrations of the marker compounds were measured for the test units with the lowest degradation (highest respiration rates). Dimethyl disulfide was found to be the most robust marker compound as it was detected from all composting units in the eighth week of the trial. Concentration of dimethyl disulfide decreased from a range of 290–4340 ppmv to 6–160 ppbv. Dimethyl trisulfide concentrations decreased to a range of below detection limit to 430 ppbv while pyrimidine concentrations decreased to a range of below detection limit to 13 ppbv.